http://rankinfile.co.nz/rfile03929Waitakere2013.html

Much of New Zealand is going through a period of sustained growth in residential real estate demand. While Waitakere City may not have house prices as high as those of Auckland and North Shore, it will I believe experience bigger percentage gains over the next ten years than Auckland's other cities.

Waitakere has two harbour coastlines plus the now world renowned west coast beaches. It is coastal properties that, nationwide, are experiencing the greatest upward revaluation.

Further, the SH20 south-western motorway will be completed by 2013. The result will be to create a commuter corridor between Waitakere and the job-rich locations in southeast Auckland. Why would anyone choose to live in North Shore and commute through Spaghetti Junction if they could commute from Waitakere instead? In 2013, Waitakere will have better road access than North Shore to both southern and central Auckland. In addition, it has a railway service to Newmarket and Queen Street that will certainly improve.

Waitakere and bordering parts of Rodney such as Muriwai and Huapai will grow as preferred places to commute from. Existing businesses can expect to benefit as increased numbers of affluent home-owners will purchase goods and services in the West.

However, alongside the growth of affluence, there will also be increased hardship among the many Westies who do not own their homes. They must either pay higher rents or overextend themselves in their attempts to join the ranks of the propertied. These residents with reduced disposable incomes will buy fewer goods and services.

Waitakere will continue to have a high proportion of renters. We may find, also, that a large proportion of new landlords do not reside in and therefore will not shop in Waitakere. Such landlords will be from the rising ranks of the non-resident multi-propertied, including overseas-based New Zealanders who are accumulating property here with the view to returning one day. Even after the recent increases in the $NZ dollar, property in Waitakere offers an attractive and affordable investment option to New Zealanders working in London.

The growth of opportunities for new businesses servicing the local market is therefore unlikely to match the growth of residents' incomes.

However, just as it will become easier for people to live in Waitakere but work elsewhere, so it will become easier for Waitakere businesses to serve national or international markets. Rail access may give Waitakere businesses an additional advantage over their North Shore rivals.

There will be opportunities for businesses to cluster, and to synergise from each other. With a substantial pool of workers looking for higher wages to pay their higher rents and mortgages, and with Waitakere's more up-market image, it could be all on to create a modern new industrial zone, maybe in the Whenuapai area.

Indeed, assuming the SH18 north-west component of Auckland's western motorway is completed, Waitakere may look forward to a substantial inflow of commuters from North Shore. For them, Whenuapai will be much more pleasant commute than Penrose.
 

© 2003   Keith Rankin

Rankin File | 2003 titles