Peter Dunne's United Party advertisement that featured in today's NZ Herald says more about New Zealand's fin de le millénium political landscape than he probably realises. Coming hard on the heels of Tuariki Delamere's sacking as Immigration Minister, the divide between Maori and Pakeha perceptions of our political landscape is as wide as ever.

The three "baddies" featured in the advertisement as "holding the government to ransom" are all Maori: Winston Peters, Alamein Kopu and Tau Henare. Dunne might just as well have added two other Maori: Tuku Morgan and Delamere. Dunne, who proposes to exercise the "balance" responsibly, is a white (pakeha) middle-aged male. Further, there is no evidence that Peters, Kopu or Henare did anything irresponsible while part of the Bolger/Shipley governments. It's all innuendo and perceptions.

Delamere granted NZ residency to Chinese investors in return for their investing in unbankable Maori land. He broke the rules by extending his ministerial discretion beyond his reasonable powers to do so. What is seen by pakeha as the thin end of the corruption wedge is seen first by Maori as an attempt to break out of the unique poverty trap that Maori find themselves in. Entrepreneurial Maori see pakeha-dominated governments as always knocking back their initiatives.

In 1996, the proportional MMP electoral system gave Maori political influence like they have never had since the 1930s. (Ironically, Sir Apirana Ngata - whose face appears on our $50 notes - was forced to resign from Parliament then, over a similar matter.)

Unfortunately for Maori, it looks like their independent (though not united!) voice of the last three years will be lost. It is possible that all the Maori electorates will revert to Labour. Most likely half of the Labour Maori electorate candidates will get elected via the party list if they don't win in their electorates.

The Maori Labour voice in the next Parliament may prove to be even more muted than it was before 1996. This is because of the anti-defection legislation that Labour proposes. Most of the MPs who have been accused of being "rag tag party hoppers" have been Maori. The Labour candidate in Ikaroa-Rawhiti (Parekura Horomia) says that his allegiance to Maori is stronger than is his allegiance to Labour. The strengthened centralised party discipline that Labour plan to impose will in practice prevent Horomia from pursuing an independent line.

(As an aside, the anti-defection legislation might be less iniquitous if it comes with a law to have no replacements for list MPs who resign or die. I believe that Helen Clark and Jim Anderton want to manage their caucuses like John Hart managed the All Blacks; ie to make tactical substitutions. They see the unelected party list as their "bench". There is in fact no need to replace list MPs. Party proportionality is not exact under MMP - just ask Graham Capill about 1996 - and is compromised when a by-election is held.)

There is a way for Maori to get an independent voice in the coming Parliament, without compromising their party allegiance to Labour. They can give electorate votes to Tau, Tuku, Tu, Tuariki and Derek Fox while still voting Labour. Further, by giving Mana Maori 1.3% or more of the overall vote - and so long as Tuariki Delamere wins Waiariki - we could have Tame Iti in Parliament as well. (That would take the pressure of Nandor Tanczos and Sue Bradford over the issue of unlawful protest!) This would give Maori an independent representation to complement the excellent Maori candidates who will be elected under the banners of the main parties.

It would be interesting if Tu Wyllie wins his seat, and Winston Peters depends on Tu for his seat. Winston would then have to defer to Wyllie on Maori issues at least.

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It is appropriate in New Zealand that, if anyone should have the "balance of power", it should be independent Maori. After all, we did have a Treaty of Waitangi and Maori are tangata whenua.

Pakeha New Zealanders are going to have to become more sensitive to genuine Maori issues. Peter Dunne's advertisement is a crowning example of pakeha insensitivity. Maori will not seek solutions "out of left field" if solutions to rural and urban Maori poverty can be found from within the system.

It is my feeling that these matters will create the biggest source of tension in the next Parliament. I expect that none of Tau, Tuku, Tame, Tuariki or Derek Fox will be elected tomorrow. (Tuariki Delamere and Derek Fox are the most likely.) The lack of an independent Maori voice, combined with the shackling of the Labour and Alliance caucuses, could lead to some quite bitter Maori-Pakeha stand-offs in the next three years. This week's Delamere-Shipley clash may be just round one.

© 1999   Keith Rankin

Rankin File | 1999 titles